On October 30, Botswana’s political landscape was dramatically shaken with the unexpected victory of the Coalition for Democratic Change (UDC), marking the end of six decades of absolute dominance by the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). This result enabled UDC leader Duma Boko to realize his dream of becoming the next President of the country.
For the first time since Botswana’s independence in 1966, opposition parties won the majority of seats in Parliament, a historic breakthrough for the country. As soon as the partial results, which placed the UDC in the lead, were announced, outgoing President Mokgweetsi Masisi acknowledged his defeat, a gesture praised by many observers as a sign of political maturity and a guarantee of stability for the nation. « I will hand over all ongoing matters to the new President so that he can address them after his inauguration. I will continue to serve the country’s interests in accordance with our constitution, » he said.
This profound shift in Botswana’s political landscape is largely seen as a response to the growing dissatisfaction of citizens with the country’s management. Issues such as high unemployment, social inequality, corruption, and economic stagnation have fueled a desire for change. In particular, the outgoing president was criticized for failing to fulfill his 2019 election promises, including those related to economic growth, employment, and economic diversification, as the country remains heavily dependent on diamonds.
Young voters, especially in urban areas, appear to have lost confidence in the BDP and turned to the opposition, viewed as a credible alternative. This shift signals the dawn of a new political era for the country, although significant challenges await the next government.
The new UDC leadership will face several major economic challenges. One of the most pressing is the impact of synthetic diamonds, which are increasingly capturing the market for natural diamonds, the main pillar of Botswana’s economy. Diamonds account for about a quarter of the country’s GDP and more than 90% of its exports.
According to a report from the Econsult Economic Review, rough diamond exports fell by 42% in March 2024 compared to the previous year, leading to stagnation in GDP. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts only 1% growth for 2024, a sharp slowdown from 5.5% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023.
Moreover, the country is facing rising unemployment, which has increased from 21% in 2019 to nearly 28% earlier this year. This presents a considerable challenge for the UDC, which will need to meet the high expectations of the population for economic and social reforms, while also navigating an increasingly uncertain global economic environment.