Since 1975, the Algerian regime has made financial and military support for the Polisario Front one of the pillars of its foreign policy and African strategy.
This alliance, instrumentalized for geopolitical and above all domestic purposes, now appears to be turning against its own architects, namely General Saïd Chengriha and President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, according to Western analysts.
Amid internal divisions in the north, with President Ferhat Mehenni’s proclamation of Kabylie’s independence, growing diplomatic isolation from southern nations, and increasing public discontent, Algeria’s military regime finds itself trapped by the very snare it set.
The Abraham Accords, marking normalization between Israel and several Arab states, have dealt a serious blow to Algiers’ diplomatic strategy, further isolating a regime weakened by economic crisis and domestic unrest brutally repressed by Algerian security services.
Maintaining the Tindouf camps in Algeria, particularly the Polisario leadership abroad, costs the Algerian budget around one billion dollars each year. In the midst of a severe social crisis and massive youth unemployment, this expenditure has become increasingly difficult to justify.
Even worse, numerous international reports have exposed large-scale embezzlement of humanitarian aid intended for Sahrawis in the Tindouf camps.
According to investigations by several intelligence agencies, the majority over 80% of those in the Tindouf camps are in fact from Algeria’s own Sahara region or are migrants from sub-Saharan Africa.
Faced with this situation, the Algerian regime now stands isolated, trapped in a rigid narrative that no longer aligns with the real-world geopolitical landscape.
Reports from the Sahel and southern Algeria indicate a growing infiltration of armed groups originating from the Polisario into trafficking and terrorist networks operating in northern Mali, conducting attacks against the Africa Corps, a Russian military contingent securing Moscow’s interests on the continent.
By betting on the Polisario, the Algerian regime has locked itself into a sterile confrontation that undermines its economy, isolates its diplomacy, and fuels domestic instability, particularly with the forthcoming proclamation of Kabylie’s independence by the government led by President Ferhat Mehenni.